The 2026 outlook forecasts 8-14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher). That's expected to include 3-6 hurricanes (74 mph or higher), and 1-3 major hurricanes (categories 3-5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).
According to NOAA, the expected average is 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
NOAA said it has 70% confidence in its forecast.
A key driver of the outlook is the mitigating effect of El Niño, a weather pattern that supports fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. Notably, warmer ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could counteract any inhibiting factors resulting from El Niño
Officials, including National Weather Service Meteorologist in Charge Steven Pfaff, cautioned that the public can misinterpret what a below-normal outlook means for potential local impacts.
"All it takes is one storm to define a hurricane season, regardless of the outlook. Given southeast NC's and northeast SC's hurricane history, our communities must prepare the same way every year," Pfaff noted.
Officials note that "now is the time to prepare for hurricane season, and remain vigilant this summer and fall."
You can find NOAA's full 2026 hurricane outlook here. 2026 hurricane outlook here.