Draft Timeline
The North Carolina Ports Authority asked the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to evaluate a proposal to deepen the Cape Fear River channel. The goal: to improve efficiency by better accommodating the larger Post-Panamax cargo ships that now dominate global trade.
According to USACE’s “Wilmington Harbor 403: Draft Environmental Impact Statement,” the project is intended to “contribute to national economic development by addressing transportation inefficiencies for the forecasted vessel fleet, consistent with protecting the Nation’s environment.” In 2020, Congress conditionally approved $834 million for the project, pending environmental review. A cost-sharing agreement between the USACE Wilmington District and the NC Ports Authority followed in 2022, and the “Wilmington Harbor 403 Draft Environmental Impact Statement” was released in September 2025.
Public comment was solicited multiple times on the proposal, with USACE scientists presenting a summary of their findings to the public on October 8, 2025. Although the draft includes three options: No Action (NAA), AA1 (dredging to 47 feet), and AA2 (dredging to 45 feet), only NAA and AA1 remain under consideration after the draft. USACE accepted written public comments until November 3, 2025.
Two Options Now Under Consideration
USACE is charged with choosing the option that Brett Walters, Chief of the Planning and Environmental Branch, explained, “best balances the costs, benefits, and adverse impacts.”
- No Action Alternative (NAA) — maintain the current 42-foot channel with regular maintenance dredging.
- Alternative Action 1 (AA1) — deepen the channel by 5 feet, plus 2 feet for error, to 47 feet and deepening to 49 feet from Battery Island into the ocean to reach deeper water. Widening the river channel in many areas and adding a channel prism (an angle to the sides) to reduce shoaling.
The project would relocate dredged material to several local beaches, marshes, islands, and eroding river shorelines. The plan also includes a mitigation plan to offset environmental impacts.
Since a thousand acres of freshwater wetlands are predicted to become brackish or salt marshes, the mitigation plan includes purchasing and protecting from development 500 acres of freshwater marsh around the Black River, a tributary that joins the Cape Fear River about 10 miles north of downtown Wilmington.
The mitigation plan also includes attempting to remove persistent invasive species from a different salt marsh to improve the habitat, and rerouting fish, like striped bass and endangered sturgeon, around and over dams they can't traverse when spawning. If approved, construction of AA1 would begin in 2030 and take six years, optimistically.
Potential Benefits of AA1
USACE says AA1 will give Post-Panamax ships more room to navigate and cause less erosion to riverbanks because there will be more ship clearance. According to USACE Oceanographer Dr. Grace Maze, deeper water would reduce stress on the riverbed by giving ships more clearance between their hulls and the channel bottom.
Shipping companies would also save money. Currently, larger cargo ships must “light load” to navigate the Cape Fear, meaning they carry less cargo and make more trips. They must also time their arrivals and departures with high tide, which creates inefficiency and increased cost. If ships could enter fully loaded, the Corp states that fewer trips will be needed. According to the Draft Report, the average annual net benefit would be $15,874,000, producing a cost-to-benefit ratio of 1.3.
“This is not fantastic,” said geologist Roger Shew, a retired UNCW professor, “but it meets the criteria” for the government to remain interested in the project.
USACE states the plan is unlikely to harm regional drinking water. Clarissa Murray, P.E., lead civil engineer in hydraulics, notes that water wells in Carolina Beach, Kure, and Bald Head Island should not experience saltwater intrusion from the project. In addition, David Connelly, also with USACE, adds that in Wilmington, impacts to salinity at the supply wells are small and unlikely to be noted.
Because of the loss of freshwater wetlands and impacts to aquatic habitat, mandated mitigation in the project includes improved fish passage around Lock and Dam 1, LD1 (near Reigelwood), and a rock arch rapid at Lock and Dam 2, LD2 (near Elizabethtown), potentially helping some fish reach their spawning grounds. In addition, purchasing about 500 acres of freshwater marsh near the Black River will protect it from development.
Roughly half of the dredged materials are earmarked for beneficial use, including rebuilding eroded beaches, marsh areas, and shorelines, areas on the Cape Fear River, and the Wilmington Offshore Fisheries Structure.
“The rocks will provide important reef habitats in the offshore environment,” explained Shew.
Environmental Concerns
Critics of the AA1 plan warn that the ecological costs could outweigh the economic benefits. Endangered species such as green sea turtles and Atlantic sturgeon could be harmed by both the deepening process and its long-term effects. Increased water particles and rock blasting vibrations may greatly impact sturgeon. Blasting impacts might be minimized with proper procedures, noted Shew.
Below: Adapted from the draft report. This table shows the animals in the area, whether or not they might be affected by the project, and how likely the effect might be.
| Listed Species within the Study Area | Status | Proposed Effect Determination | Likelihood of Effect |
| Sea Turtles | |||
| Green sea turtle (North Atlantic [NA] DPS) | Threatened | May Affect | Likely |
| Hawksbill sea turtle | Endangered | May Affect | Not Likely |
| Kemp’s ridley sea turtle | Endangered | May Affect | Likely |
| Leatherback sea turtle | Endangered | May Affect | Likely |
| Loggerhead sea turtle (Northwest Atlantic [NWA] DPS) | Threatened | May Affect | Likely |
| Fish | |||
| Atlantic Sturgeon (SA DPS) | Endangered | May Affect | Likely |
| Shortnose sturgeon | Endangered | May Affect | Likely |
| Elasmobranchs | |||
| Giant Manta Ray | Threatened | May Affect | Likely |
| Oceanic Whitetip Shark | Threatened | No Effect | No Effect |
| Whales | [HH1] | ||
| Blue Whale | Endangered | No Effect | No Effect |
| Fin Whale | Endangered | No Effect | No Effect |
| North Atlantic Right Whale | Endangered | May Affect | Not Likely |
| Sei Whale | Endangered | No Effect | No Effect |
Other species, like oysters, southern flounder, spot, and striped bass, will be negatively affected by the project. Wildlife, including turtles, can be trapped and killed in the machinery, and moving sediment to beaches could interfere with turtles during nesting and hatching. Shew pointed out that removing sediment will likely impact creatures living on and in the riverbed, like crabs.
The NC Audubon Society expressed concern in an online statement about “heavier ships and larger wakes into the river, which erode nesting islands, increasing overwash of nests, and will destroy over 1,000 acres of wetlands that support bottomland forest birds, fisheries, [and] water quality.”
Other scientists warn of subtle but lasting physical changes to the river system. USACE’s Dr. Maze noted that tidal range and storm surge would increase only slightly—about 0.11 feet at high tide. Even minor changes can compound with sea-level rise.
Shew explained that Wilmington is “having one of the larger rises in sea level on the East Coast since 2000 and is a compound flood area... This will have even more impact in the future…Even with no sea level rise, a 500-year storm event, a surge in a deepened river would increase peak water levels by 3.1% at Wilmington and expand the total inundation area by 0.5% compared to taking no action.”
Erosion and bed stress would also continue.
“Regardless of the action, increased vessel traffic over time would continue to elevate sediment disturbance and shoreline vulnerability through Wilmington Harbor,” said Maze.
Cargo volumes will continue to increase and, “the vessel fleet serving the US East Coast is expected to continue to shift to larger vessels in the future,” said David Connelly, Chief of Public Affairs for USACE.
Maintenance dredging would not end either—in fact, it could accelerate. Maze explained that deepening has historically increased the rate by 6 to 34% in some places without sea level change. The channel becomes shallow again from sediment accumulation, requiring more frequent dredging and associated costs. Maze adds that as sea levels rise, the rate will increase further.
Climate change may compound these risks.
“We have seen the impact of 500 and even 1000-year flood events caused by heavier rainfall,” Shew wrote in a summary he shared with the public. “When coupled with the higher tides, storm surge, and sea level rise, our area businesses and property are even more at risk.”
Saltwater intrusion is another growing concern. Deepening the channel allows denser saltwater to move farther upstream, converting freshwater wetlands to brackish and killing centuries-old trees.
“Saltier water damages freshwater plants and also causes the breakdown of freshwater organics/mud in the soils,” Shew explained. “This breakdown will lead to even more erosion and subsidence in the adjacent land areas dominated by the freshwater tidal wetlands.”
A recent UNC Wilmington study found that some trees near the danger zone are over 400 years old, with one dated to at least 800 years. This study also shows a tie between saltwater intrusion and the increase in the size of the ghost forest. Shew shared Google Earth photos taken roughly twenty years apart in the same season, and the evidence of the expansion of the ghost forest is clear. Although the mitigation plan includes protecting some existing freshwater wetlands, it does not restore those that will be lost.
Below: Images shared by Shew, showing the conversion of the Town Creek area from forest to marsh. The change is attributed to soil and salinity changes, resulting from storms and a 2005 dredging project that deepened the Cape Fear from 38 to 42 feet.
The plan includes fish-passage improvements, but the LD2 rock ramp may not be effective, especially for the cost of $32 million.
“A rock ramp was built at LD1 [in 2012 and modified in 2021] as mitigation for previous harbor modifications, but successful passage of Atlantic Sturgeon via the rock ramp has not yet been documented,” according to the draft report. Shew suggested that instead of building another rock ramp at LD2, the funds could be used to remove or partially remove the dam since it isn’t used for storage, allowing fish to use this part of the river naturally. “This would promote upstream migration and provide funds for rock arch rapid construction at LD3, which would possibly allow full passage up the Cape Fear,” Shew explained.
Another issue not yet addressed in the draft report is PFAS contaminated river sediments. Shew pointed out that PFAS information is not addressed since it’s not currently regulated by the EPA. However, it will be regulated in 2031—only one year into this project. Several studies have shown PFAS is present in Cape Fear River sediments. PFAS are dangerous chemicals that can lead to myriad health problems, e.g., cancer, birth defects, thyroid disease, lowered response to vaccination. According to a 2024 study, PFAS can be absorbed through the skin.
“Knowing the level of contaminants in the sediment before dredging is important to determine possible human/wildlife impacts,” said Shew.
No Action Alternative
Choosing NAA would avoid new environmental disturbances, but it wouldn’t eliminate maintenance dredging, which would continue to place materials on Brunswick County beaches and Eagles Island. Larger ships would still need to light-load and rely on high tides, increasing inefficiency and cost. Dr. Maze noted that NAA could actually increase erosion and bed stress by 20% compared to the deepening proposal given the higher number of vessels required.
Conclusions
Critics note that if the AA1 plan is followed, it will bring environmental harm without delivering significant economic benefits. It will increase the loss of trees, salt marsh vegetation, and wildlife, threaten endangered turtles and sturgeon, and increase flooding.
Although the USACE public comment period has closed, the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality is now accepting public input on the project. A public hearing will be held on November 17, 2025, from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. at the Skyline Center.
Written comments will be accepted until December 5, 2025, and can be mailed to:
Federal Consistency Coordinator, 400 Commerce Avenue, Morehead City, NC 28557, or emailed to Federalconsistencycomments@deq.nc.gov with the subject line: “Federal Consistency: USACE Wilmington Harbor 403 Navigation Project.”
Every decision on the river carries a cost — and a consequence. The Cape Fear has always been both a working waterway and a living ecosystem reshaped by tide, by current, and the choices we make. The proposed dredging may promise economic efficiency, but the river’s future—and that of the communities and species that depend on it— will hinge on how well we can balance progress with protection.
