As arguably the largest, most expensive, and most complicated infrastructure project in the Cape Fear region, the CFMB has understandably left folks with more than a few questions, even those who have followed the process fairly closely. Recent revelations about funding the project — including a skyrocketing cost estimate and the freezing of federal funding — have only added more uncertainty.
A fair part of the confusion comes from the fact that, while some pieces have started to fall into place, the North Carolina Department of Transportation is still in the planning process. NCDOT staff like Trevor Carroll, the division engineer for the state’s southern coast, are careful to use to word “plan” instead of “design,” and note that NCDOT has not selected a final alternative.
Previously, there were several options on the table, including a 65-foot version and two 135-foot versions (one with a fixed height, the other with a movable middle section).
Much of the conversation has been around the fixed-height 135-foot bridge, because it was expected that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Coast Guard would require the new bridge to have the same clearance as the existing CFMB. (And, in fact, both agencies have formally submitted their requirements for a 135-foot clearance).
This was the option that was submitted to both the state’s funding process (the State Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP) and the federal grant program funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). Carroll said that another option could ultimately be chosen, but NCDOT wanted to be consistent with the same plan. Notably, while the movable span might not end up being more expensive than the fixed span, it would incur more long-term maintenance and staffing costs.
The most contentious part of the plan is likely the proposal to have tolls — probably a per-axel rate, with most passenger vehicles likely paying around $2 — in order to fund the project. Officials have long suggested that considering a toll was the only way to move the project forward while acknowledging that it’s an unpalatable option they hope to eventually avoid.
How did the cost increase so much?
Last year, the ballpark cost to replace the CFMB — based on the 135-foot fixed-span model — was around $484 million. In July, the project was awarded a $242 million federal grant, pegged to half of the cost of the project.
A bipartisan group of local, regional, and congressional leaders leveraged the potential revenue from a toll to make the project feasible enough to win the grant — but they also argued that, once the federal grant was in hand, enough additional funding might be available to actually negate the need for tolls. It was a delicate negotiation, but last summer, it looked like it had paid off.
Then, in the spring, the project was dealt a double whammy.
The first blow to the high hopes for the project came when Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo let it slip that the cost had increased dramatically, to $1.1 billion.
While the cost estimates had been increasing over the years — from around $245 million in 2020 to $400 million in 2023 to over $480 million in 2024 — this jump, more than double in less than a year, was truly staggering.
The cost increase, Carroll said, was driven by several factors. One was simply inflation. Basically, the cost of everything involved in a bridge had increased — concrete, steel, you name it. (And this was, notably, before the Trump administration began aggressively deploying tariffs on a wide range of products and nations.)
But inflation doesn’t account for the cost more than doubling. Other costs came from a more refined plan. While still not quite a design, a more detailed plan included several new details.
On the Brunswick County side, this includes tying the bridge into the interchange of highways 74-76 and 421. Carroll told WHQR that NCDOT will not have to rebuild the entire interchange. The plan also called for “bridging” the wetlands on the Cape Fear River’s western bank.
On the New Hanover County side, efforts to minimize impacts on historical properties meant more expensive off-ramp options — essentially, spirals that reduce the off-ramp’s footprint, but require more fortification. A more minor factor — but still part of the equation — is the dramatic increase in property values, which will likely increase the cost of eminent domain actions.
The second blow to the CFMB replacement project came when, as part of DOGE’s barnstorm through the federal government, the BIL grant was “paused” as thousands of infrastructure grants were reviewed by the incoming Trump administration (including new guidance from the USDOT to prioritize projects in regions with higher-than-average birth rates, part of the administration’s natalist policy platform).
The initial 30-day review period, directed as part of Trump’s executive order creating DOGE in late February, has long since passed. But Carroll said as of last month, only around 450 of 3,000 federal transportation grants had been released. While Carroll said NCDOT’s federal partners “understand this bridge is critical,” it’s still a waiting game.
“I wish I had great news to tell you,” he said.
How will the CFMB replacement be paid for?
The soaring cost and frozen funding twisted the knife on an already precarious funding situation that has pushed local officials to begrudgingly consider a toll option.
Due to the way major projects are approved, while NCDOT takes the lead on planning and funding for the project, the regional planning agency — the Wilmington Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO) — has to approve tolls. Notably, this does give local officials a seat at the table, but it also makes them the ‘bad guy’ when it comes the unpopular but putatively unavoidable choice to ‘consider’ tolls.
Back in 2021, the WMPO shot down a toll proposal from a third-party company. But in the years that followed, the CFMB replacement project continued to score poorly in the state's transportation funding plan.
So, with a pricetag that's grown to $1.1 billion, revenue has to come from somewhere. That legally forces NCDOT to consider factoring in tolls — although there’s been no specifics about whether it would be a privatized or public toll arrangement. Carroll acknowledged that “not a lot of folks love the idea of a toll,” but added — optimistically — “we're going to continue to explore all funding options. There are other ways that projects get built.”
Right now, though, there’s no specific plans to secure additional funding.
There have also been questions about reducing the cost of the bridge, which would mean pushing back against the recommendations of the Army Corps and Coast Guard about the 135-foot height, 400-foot width, and depth and location of the current turning basin south of the bridge.
Carroll said NCDOT said conversations about those requirements could happen and, in particular, that NCDOT had talked with federal partners about the turning basin issue. But it wouldn’t be easy.
“It really does take an act of Congress literally,” Carroll told WHQR. “You know, we didn't call President Trump, or we didn't call [USDOT] Secretary [Sean] Duffy to ask those specific questions, but we did ask our partners at their federal highway, so it really is that big of a challenge for us.”
Carroll also noted that the $242 million federal grant — assuming it is eventually released — comes with a timeline that is considerably shorter, in their understanding, than the amount of time it would take to reconsider something like the turning basin parameters.
“So the timeline that we're on, because of the grant that we've been awarded, it's much shorter than what we have time to explore and actually follow through on that option. We've had some conversations about that, but we realize our time frame is much shorter,” he said.
WHQR has heard several suggestions that the Army Corps or Coast Guard should provide funding, since their design requirements for height and width appear to be, at least in part, driving the cost. One reader compared it to “someone not kicking in for pizza, but still choosing what toppings they wanted.”
Carroll said that was a “good analogy,” but added, “I don't know of any scenario where Coast Guard or Army Corps have kicked in funds.”
Another suggestion has been to cancel the $18.5-million flyover project at the intersection of highways 76 and 17 (better known as Eastwood and Military Cutoff roads) near Wrightsville Beach and redirect the funding to the bridge. The project, which is currently slated to begin construction in late fall of 2027, will allow Eastwood to cross over Military Cutoff. NCDOT hopes it will improve the current F level of service to a B or C.
(Some of this has come from a genuine desire to prioritize the bridge, but some has also come from concerns about the disruptions to businesses around the busy intersection as the project acquires property and builds out on and off ramps.)
Carroll said the idea was a no-go.
"We cannot just simply move funds from one project to the other. It's not always that simple. And in this particular case, that is not allowed. That is a direct conflict of the STI law," he said.
The current Cape Fear Memorial Bridge is ‘functionally obsolete.’ Should I avoid it?
Early last year, the NCDOT conducted a massive, months-long maintenance project on the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge, shutting down inbound traffic for nearly two months, and then outbound traffic for over a month. The disruption, as drivers found new routes over the Isabel Holmes or Dan Cameron (I-140) bridges, and freight traffic took an alternate route around Wilmington (sometimes ignoring posted detours and cutting through downtown), was a sobering reminder of how much traffic the CFMB handles every day.
At the time, NCDOT noted that the bridge was “functionally obsolete.” Although this referred to the bridge’s ability to handle traffic capacity — not its safety — it’s become increasingly common for people to suggest that there’s a “ticking clock” on the bridge.
Carroll said safety wasn’t a concern and that, technically, the bridge could function for 20 even 30 more years.
“Well, we keep extending that life with the rehabs and from a structural perspective, we could continue to extend the life of that bridge for a few more decades,” he said, although that would get increasingly expensive.
One reader suggested in a comment that the bridge was "getting ready to fall into the Cape Fear," but Carroll said that's not a threat.
The real problem is that the region needs six lanes going over that part of the Cape Fear River, Carroll said.
What’s next?
In spite of the significant financial difficulties NCDOT is facing, Carroll said they’re still looking at beginning construction in 2028 — just a few years away. The estimated completion date would be sometime in 2032 or 2033, he said.
And what would that actually look like?
“There’s going to be a lot of construction going on out there – a lot of cranes, cranes on land, cranes on barges, a lot of concrete trucks, a lot of people – to actually construct this massive bridge. And I'll say, this is a short amount of time to build such a large project,” Carroll said. “ A large bridge, a small time frame, a lot of people, a lot of large equipment is going to be necessary to construct this bridge.”
