At a joint meeting between the county commission and the planning board, officials heard presentations from several consultants about the state of play in New Hanover County.
Mollie Fitzpatrick from Root Policy presented on housing, and it’s a dire situation: the county is still short more than 7,000 units for rent, and that’s just for those who earn below 50% AMI, or average median income, of around $36,000. The market for buying a home isn’t much better.
“About half of all homes in 2020 were affordable to your median income household, so below 100% AMI,” she explained. “In 2023 only 5% of homes on the market were affordable to that — to the median income household, so 100% AMI. So, really dramatic losses.”
A lot of that is driven by higher interest rates. As for rentals, Fitzpatrick says the county can catch up on that 7,000-unit affordability gap either through building lower-cost units, or by subsidizing existing units.
That’s just to “catch up” with current need, she said. It’s been years of trying to catch up in that way. For at least ten years, the median rent in New Hanover County has been higher than what’s affordable to the median renter’s income.
Those housing gaps are just accounting for current needs. Looking toward the future, Fitzpatrick says, “the total units needed to accommodate that projected growth over 10 years is about 21,000 units, or about 38,000 over 20 years.”
As for the job market, Consultant Kathleen Rose says the county could try to direct the economy towards higher paying jobs by shifting its mixed-use zoning from residential and retail to industrial and office space.
"So the easy answer is, fill it all with housing. But if we're trying to balance the economy, we need to take a look at balancing it with other types of commercial development, and considering the types of commercial development that raise wages and income levels," Rose said.
Holly Shelter, US 421, US 17 Scotts Hill, the Sidbury Corridor, and Monkey Junction are the future mixed-use growth areas, she said. Among these, she suggested most of the housing go to Monkey Junction and the Sidbury Corridor.
"It begs the questions: do we want to have more intensive growth? What areas should be preserved? What areas should grow again?" Rose asked. "For that lifestyle-dynamic economic development, goals for industrial development have to be reconciled. So you all as a community are going to have to decide how you want to make that balance, and again, we have to look at traffic impacts, quality of life, etc. That's part of the conversation."
Public officials at the meeting broadly talked about wanting an appropriate balance of housing needs, environmental considerations, and developing a higher-paying economy.
County staff had developed a list of ten priorities for the 2050 plan, and commissioners asked that they narrow it down to about four categories to simplify communication with the general public.
