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North Carolina is not on a path to carbon neutrality, new greenhouse gas inventory shows

Warming stripes visually represent the warmer- and cooler-than-average years based on the 1971 to 2000 average.
Climate Central
Warming stripes visually represent the warmer- and cooler-than-average years based on the 1971 to 2000 average.

The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality has released an updated inventory of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, detailing trends in the pollutants most responsible for climate change.

The report shows North Carolina has reduced its gross emissions by 20% since 2005. But the state is not on track to meet its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050.

Energy-related emissions fell in recent years due to a shift from coal to natural gas, increased renewable energy generation and improvements in grid efficiency. Transportation emissions, however, saw only modest reductions over the same period.

North Carolina's emission trends from 1990 to 2022.
North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality
North Carolina's emission trends from 1990 to 2022.

The report also warns that emissions from the two most polluting sectors — electrical generation and transportation — have plateaued. Net emissions are expected to rise again over the next five to 10 years.

The report indicates that this trend is not simply a rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. As utilities such as Duke Energy expand fossil-fuel infrastructure to keep pace with population growth and an influx of new AI data centers, electricity generation emissions are projected to grow through 2036.

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Zachary Turner is a climate reporter and author of the WFAE Climate News newsletter. He freelanced for radio and digital print, reporting on environmental issues in North Carolina.