SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Life has gotten very expensive for Americans - food prices, utility bills, health care costs. So it is no surprise that affordability is becoming a campaign centerpiece for Democrats and Republicans as we start looking ahead to next year's midterms. President Trump is in the most important swing state in the country, Pennsylvania, today to try to take those issues head on, but this is a topic that in recent weeks, the president has struggled to address.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: You use the word affordability. It's a Democrat hoax. They're the ones that drove the prices up.
DETROW: Trump is in Monroe County, a place in northeastern Pennsylvania that backed President Biden in 2020, then swung to Trump in the 2024 election. So how are swing voters in a swing state feeling about all of this? We called up Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and the director of the college's Institute of Public Opinion. Welcome to the show.
CHRISTOPHER BORICK: Hey. Thanks, Scott.
DETROW: You are the person to call when we want to know about public opinion in Pennsylvania. So let's start with kind of the basic numbers that you are seeing. How are Pennsylvanians feeling about the economy? How are they feeling about President Trump?
BORICK: Yeah. Not surprisingly, Scott, they mirror lots of what we see nationally. Pennsylvanians are not in a good mood regarding the economy, the direction of the nation as a whole. And that's reflected in their appraisals of President Trump. His job approval numbers are in the low 40s, which, again, mirror what's happening nationally. It's not the same environment that he found just a year ago in the commonwealth when he was able to carry the state for the second out of three attempts here.
DETROW: In terms of the numbers you're seeing, approval ratings, things like that, how much has changed or how little has changed over the past 12 months?
BORICK: Well, as you know very well, Pennsylvania is a state that's always on the margin when it comes to presidential elections, and often just the smallest changes are really impactful. And so last year when the president carried Pennsylvania, he did so by, you know, a little over a point, almost two points. And therefore, his margin of error, if you will, in terms of staying above water, isn't that great. And so if you lose even 5- to 10% of the voters in the state, it's significant. And if you look at where his polls are now compared to where they were a year ago, there has been loss. And most of that loss is in terms of his handling of areas that were once a strength.
DETROW: Yeah.
BORICK: And those strengths are economic matters where he's seen the biggest decline in terms of how the public views him.
DETROW: He, just like Joe Biden before him, would blame the economy on Donald Trump. Trump is regularly blaming the economy on Joe Biden. We are a year into this administration. Do you have any sense from what you're seeing and hearing of the limits of that kind of message?
BORICK: I think it's very limited, Scott, the ability to really convince people a year in almost to his administration that this is largely the impact of the cards that he was dealt when he came into office. I think the president has got to really difficult time making that case. It's going up against what people feel and Pennsylvanians feel. And right now they don't feel good. They don't feel good about lots of things. They don't feel good about electricity prices. They don't feel good about housing prices in the area. They certainly don't feel good about health care. And while the president can craft a message that targets the Biden-era impacts, I think it's just - it's not necessarily reaching the audience in a way that's mattering for him.
DETROW: You know, it's such a static political country. You talk about the fact that Pennsylvania is always on the margins, but it's a state that went for Trump, went against Trump, went for Trump again. What is the best way to think about the voters who have gone back and forth and what draws their attention, what turns them off, what wins their support?
BORICK: Yeah. Scott, it's a group that I think is longing for something and not always easily defined. As you said, they've vacillated now in Pennsylvania, in places like Monroe County, Northampton County, the eastern side of the state, over the last three elections. And I think they're searching for something that's not necessarily always easily attainable. And right now, who's ever in power seems to be paying a price for that longing. It's hard to make a case, right? It's hard to make a case to voters who aren't happy that you are really doing a good job. Biden struggled. Trump struggled before him, and now Trump is struggling again. It's a big challenge to convince unhappy voters that you're doing a job that's, you know, serving their best interest.
DETROW: That's Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, also the director of the college's Institute of Public Opinion. Thank you so much.
BORICK: Hey. Thanks, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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