Demographic research projects the percentage of students going to traditional public schools in North Carolina will decline by 2030 — and those declines could be sharper after factoring in the impact of private school vouchers.
Researchers at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Carolina Demography told the state Board of Education Tuesday they conducted three different forecasts — one continuing historic enrollment trends, and two others that factor in the Opportunity Scholarships program for private schools.
The researchers predict traditional public school enrollment will hold mostly stable through 2030, slightly increasing based on historic enrollment trends, but slightly decreasing in the other two models.
But most counties will see declines in the overall share of students enrolled at traditional public schools compared to private and charter schools — some dropping as much as 6%. It’s even more pronounced in the forecasts that factor in the state’s recently expanded private-school voucher program, said Nathan Dollar, Carolina Demography’s director. In those models, nearly all counties see declines, and some of those declines are steeper.
“For example, we’re projecting Bertie County and Craven County to decrease their shares of students enrolled in public schools by over 12% in the east, and also in McDowell County in the west,” Dollar said.
Researchers expect to see continued growth in private school and charter school enrollment, with higher growth in private schools driven by vouchers. The forecasts did not explore whether vouchers might affect charter school enrollment, but the researchers pointed to this as an area to continue tracking.
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools is projected to grow by nearly 10,000 students through 2030 — the highest projected numeric growth in the state, though the district doesn’t rank as high percentage-wise. Currituck County Schools was ranked highest there, projected to see a 14.5% increase in its enrollment by 2030.
Dollar noted some limitations in forecasting including, for instance, Hurricane Helene, which may drive shifts in enrollment as the state continues to respond to changes in infrastructure and economics.
