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This week, Bill Saffo made it official: Wilmington’s longest-serving mayor will once again run for reelection. Saffo would have probably liked to mull the decision for a little longer, but his hand was forced in late February, when fellow Democrat and longtime New Hanover County commissioner Jonathan Barfield, Jr. announced his campaign.
As some of you might have seen, earlier this week I posted on Facebook that there’s “enough friction between [them] to cook a pork roast.” Both candidates later denied there was any tension, telling Connor Smith at WECT that they’re longtime friends. I’m not sure I buy that, at least for Saffo – who I think is magnanimously putting a good face on things. But I should also clarify what I meant by my post. As I told Smith, I don’t have it from Saffo or Barfield on the record that there’s any personal animus, but that’s kind of immaterial – what’s interesting for this race is that they’re generating a massive amount of friction in the local Democratic Party.
From my personal conversations, and surveying social media, I can see Saffo and Barfield are already splitting the party. In some ways, they’re very similar – both relatively moderate Democrats compared to the party’s more liberal-progressive voices, both with deep fundraising connections in the real estate and development industries, and both with significant name recognition. Both have some baggage, as well. I’ve seen Saffo criticized for the purchase of the former Thermo Fisher building and “overdevelopment” in the city. I’ve seen Barfield take flack for his vote to sell New Hanover Regional Medical Center to Novant, and for not being vocal enough on the Board of Commissioners. I’m not saying the criticisms on social media are all articulate and accurate – but they’re a fair indicator of some of the headwinds both candidates may face.
In part because of their similarities, I’ve also seen a fair amount of exasperation online (and heard more of the same, in private). From the left, I’ve heard calls for a more progressive candidates – and also fears that Republicans will take advantage of a divided Democratic vote.
That is what has generated the pork-roasting heat here and, to really work this culinary metaphor, presented the Republican party with an opportunity to eat the Democrat’s lunch.
New Hanover County Democratic Party Chair Jill Hopman said as much, noting that it was “entirely shortsighted” to run two Democrats for mayor. In fact, Hopman tried to dissuade Barfield from running, suggesting he could instead retake the county commissioner seat he just narrowly lost in November. Barfield didn’t take her up on it (although he could still run for county office if he’s unsuccessful in this year’s election, so he could have his cake and eat it, too).
With two Democrats running for mayor, and likely four (or more) Democrats running for three city council seats, the party is for the second time planning a straw poll – basically, a quasi-primary election with party officials voting.
As a recently-minted chair, Hopman introduced the first straw poll in 2023 to narrow four candidates – incumbent Kevin Spears, and newcomers Salette Andrews, David Joyner, and Marlowe Foster – down to three. There were complaints, specifically about Hopman’s inclusion of votes from outside the city limits. She argued these represented volunteers who would be crucial in the campaign; critics felt it watered down the influence of city voters, particularly in the Black community. Notably, Foster, one of the two Black candidates that year, was pushed off the party’s slate and lost after running essentially independently.
But, Hopman felt vindicated because, in partisan terms, the 2023 straw poll was very effective: Democrats swept the city council race.
This year, there are also two Black candidates for city council – newcomer Chakema Quintana, a community advocate who runs Live Oak Bank’s Channel, and incumbent Clifford Barnett, Sr. – and Barfield has publicly said he feels the poll may effectively scuttle one of their campaigns. Hopman, for her part, argues that the community is absolutely in a place where voters could “elect two people of color to city council this cycle as long as they do not run against each other.”
It’s worth noting that the poll will come at the end of a longer endorsement process, which starts (now) with candidate questionnaires, followed by a forum in June. (I moderated the 2023 forum, and I can say candidates had to face tough, policy-minded questions that I think shed some good light on how they’d perform as council members.) Then, if there are still more Democratic candidates than seats, the party plans to bring in a mediator, essentially to talk the weakest candidates into stepping back and workshopping their platforms for a future race. And then, the straw poll.
It’s not known yet if all the Democratic city council candidates will participate, but Barfield’s already said he’s out. In addition to calling the poll “divisive” – when he spoke to me he stopped short of calling it racist, although others have made that criticism – Barfield also claimed that, because Hopman had tried to talk him out of running, the “fix is already in.”
In other words, unless Saffo or Barfield have a sudden change of heart, the 2025 race for mayor of Wilmington is gonna be Thunderdome: Two men enter, one man leaves.
Or maybe not – it might be more than two, and it might not be all men (which would come as a relief to those who criticize what they see as the region’s “Good Old Boy” network).
It will be interesting to see if there are any dark horse candidates out there, but I’ve also heard many of the usual Republican suspects named over the last week or two: New Hanover County commissioners Dane Scalise and LeAnn Pierce (who was previously Carolina Beach’s first female mayor), influential conservative Woody White (who recently moved back into city limits), NHC GOP chairman John Hinnant, and of course City Councilman Luke Waddell, who some have held up as the future of the local Republican party. None have these folks, to date, have made any serious moves toward running. Waddell, for his part, has been cautious even about running for council reelection, let alone mayor, in large part because his wife is due to give birth to their second child any moment now.
But, all that said, you could see why conservatives would be chomping at the bit.
In past years, Republicans haven’t made a serious run at Saffo. Many watched with interest when he faced fellow Democrat Devon Scott in 2019 (Scott was later disgraced, pleading guilty to sexual assault). In 2021, when Saffo faced former Democratic mayor Harper Peterson, local GOP donors threw their financial support decisively behind Saffo. This year those donors might sit it out – or they might support their own candidate.
But all of this palace intrigue, as much fun as it is for journalists and political junkies, isn’t really the most important thing. What’s important is this election will serve as a referendum on how Wilmington has been growing and developing over the past two decades.
There are serious issues that candidates will have to address. The city is struggling to balance its budget, in part because of the purchase of the Skyline Center. There are systemic problems in the police department, and there will be important decisions about how a new chief – likely to be sworn in before the election in November – will be both supported and held accountable. Both the police and fire departments are dealing with recruiting and retaining crises. A new city manager is set to be hired and it will be important to ask how council and mayor plan to establish and steer that relationship.
And there are the perennial struggles over growth and development: the nostalgia for the sleepy beach-adjacent-town days of yore is strong, but so is the desire of a young, urban workforce to have the amenities and entertainment of a proper metropolis. Will we build out our skyline or hold the line against development? Add to that the ongoing debates that come with growth, discussions about public transportation and affordable housing.
These are crucial questions for those running for council, but I think even more so for mayoral candidates. On paper, the mayor is really just a seventh council member – with a gavel. But in reality, mayors do much more. It’s not just their executive powers during an emergency, it’s their soft power to negotiate compromise on council, to wield the bully pulpit responsibly and effectively, and to set the tone for the city.
So, yes, this election will be Thunderdome – but I hope folks can see beyond that.
If nothing else, perhaps the excitement of a title fight will engage more residents. It would be nice to see better voter turnout than the meager showing in 2023, when turnout was barely over 20%. We've still got a long way to go to November, even official filing isn't until mid-July, so for now ... stay tuned.
