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Judging from this week’s headlines, Vice President Kamala Harris’s closing night speech at the Democratic National Convention struck quite a few people with its distinct shift in tone: “Kamala Harris Introduces Herself With a Shift to the Center” (The Dispatch); “Why Kamala Harris’ Centrism Is Working” (The New York Times); “Kamala Harris Rushes to the Center” (Wall Street Journal).
NPR’s Domenico Montanaro didn’t use the c-word, but he did note how Harris tried to paint a self-portrait of “a regular, blue-collar kid, who understands the needs of people and the value of hard work and discipline.” As Montanaro wrote, it’s part and parcel of the Democrats' broader messaging, including the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as running mate, “in service of trying to reach out to the middle.”
Middle-class, middle-of-the-road, middle America – you’ve probably heard them all as shorthands for the political center in the United States. You know, “the middle.”
We talk a lot about that middle in the WHQR newsroom – whether it’s the role of unaffiliated voters in primary elections, how the Overton window for acceptable topics of debate gets shaped, or how politicians shift their messaging between the silo of a campaign fundraiser and the dais or the street.
We look, for example, at voter demographics. In New Hanover County, unaffiliated voters (like yours truly) make up the largest group, with 41% of the registered voters – significantly more than Democrats, with 27%, or Republicans, with 30%.
In Brunswick and Pender counties, there are notably more Republicans, but unaffiliated voters are a close second (the breakdown in both counties is around 40-41% Republican, 38-39% unaffiliated, and 20-21% Democratic). In Columbus, it's nearly a three-way tie, where Democrats just barely outnumber unaffiliated and then Republicans.
But, covering local elections, I’ve learned that unaffiliated registrations aren’t always synonymous with centrist or middle-ground voters.
Some are further to the right or left than the two major parties. Following the 2020 election, I spoke with many conservatives who considered leaving their party to follow former President Donald Trump in his new but inchoate Patriot Party. I saw something similar on the left in 2016, following Bernie Sanders’ loss to Hillary Clinton in the primary election. More than a few progressive liberals told me they felt the process had been “rigged” in Clinton’s favor, an accusation that was making national headlines at the time.
On both sides, these voters started checking “UNA” on their registrations but mostly continued voting for Rs or Ds right on down the ballot. They’d left their party, yes, but they hadn’t switched sides, and you could hardly call them centrists.
There are also unaffiliated voters who are politically eclectic. I have libertarian friends whose distaste for government intervention informs liberal views on issues like gay marriage and drug decriminalization and conservative opinions on government assistance and gun control. And then there are people whose faith guides them in a way that doesn’t quite line up with one party, like Catholics of my grandfather’s generation who oppose war and the death penalty – but also abortion.
If you squint, you might see some of these people in ‘the middle,’ but only in an aggregate kind of way. As individuals, on individual issues, they often have strong views that are clearly left or right of center – and drive their decisions at the ballot box.
That’s not to say some of these issues don’t have viable moderate positions, but it feels like a mistake to confuse a diverse blend of strong opinions with a generally moderate outlook.
And, of course, there are people who are somewhat apolitical, due to ignorance (possibly blissful), exhaustion, frustration – or just a necessary focus on the ground floors of Maslow’s hierarchy. I know plenty of people who are unaffiliated with politics, in general, because they have more pressing things to deal with: kids, a job, school, or their physical and mental health. The Pew Research Center calls them “stressed sideliners – and I've certainly counted myself among them at times in my life.
These days, I sometimes think the political middle is a mirage. But if there is a middle, I sense a significant portion of the population is busy, tired, and broke.
Not for nothing did James Carville coin the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid” for Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign. When you’re struggling – and struggling to care about politics – economics will still hit you right at home. It feels pretty centrist, as far as issues go – and many writing about Harris’ speech focused on her promise to cut taxes for the middle class and fight price gouging.
But that’s the picture at the national level. I wonder where the center is closer to home, here in southeastern North Carolina – and who thinks of themselves as being centrist.
If you’re one of those people, I’d love to hear from you. Is the center the product of political imagination – or is it real? As a voter, are you eclectic (or maybe exhausted) or do you feel like you find yourself at a true midpoint on most issues?
