The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now says there is a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season.
That’s an increase from May, when NOAA predicted just a 30% chance. That was based on the expected impact of El Nino, which often reduces storm activity in the Atlantic.
But El Nino effects haven’t fully materialized — in large part due to record surface ocean temperatures.
“We have record warm sea surface temperatures. There are no analogues [...] it's record. And that record that I use goes back to 1950," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Including several storms that have already formed, NOAA is now saying the season will see 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 11 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major storms, meaning winds topping 111 miles per hour.
NOAA is cautioning coastal residents to prepare for storms – and, based on the last few years of data, that includes increased risks beyond just high winds in the core path of a storm.
"We've seen the threats from hurricanes expand beyond damaging winds and dangerous storm surge to torrential rain and flooding, threatening life and property far from the landfall location," Rosencrans said.
Peak hurricane months are August through October, but the season runs through November.
You can find more from NOAA here.
